Blackjack Risk Manager 2002


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The One Second Simulator

One Second Simulator

Of all the features in BJRM, the One Second Simulator (OSS) may be the most useful. Basically, the OSS functions by reading in data from previously run flat-bet simulations. Based on those data, it then lets you input various bet amounts, patterns, and styles of play, to observe the effect they will have on your bankroll and risk-of-ruin. In a very powerful and useful feature, it will even automatically compute the bet pattern, within a certain given bet spread, that will maximize the growth rate of your bankroll!

From the drop down lists, you select: a Counting System, # of decks in play, Rules Set, and Penetration level. In the above screen shopt, the hi-lo system was chosen. BJRM allows selection from among Hi-Lo, K-O, Zen  UBZII, AO2/A, Halves, RPC . More systems will  be available in the furture.  Next, Enter your Bank ($), and the Number of Units you would divide the Bank into (e.g., 400).

Then, by clicking on the "Load" & "Calc" buttons, you load in flat bet statistics for the conditions you have chosen.   From this starting point, you can directly manipulate the bets, in several ways.

Quick Bet Options

To speed bet entry up, BJRM offers a series of  drop-down list choices that automatically calculate bets for you, and populate them on the screen. These selections make use of a value labeled "MaxBet (x)". This field, preset at a ‘typical’ default value based on # of decks in play (4u for single deck, 6u for double deck, 12u for 6 & 8 deck), can be used to set the upper limit (max bet) of your spread. You can, of course, change this field to any number you like. Several of the "radio button" selections make use of this MaxBet value. For example, a drop-down choice labeled  "Opt 0 to (x)" would automatically populate optimum (based on the Bank unit size) bets, with a minimum bet of 0 (at negative ev counts), and maximum bet off the MaxBet value.

The Find Spread Configuration That Maximizes DI Section

This is, perhaps, the most useful section of the whole Blackjack Risk Manager program. Using the speed and tireless repetition ability of the computer, this section automatically computes for you the optimal counts at which to place the various bet sizes within your specified spread, in order to maximize the exponential growth of your bankroll.

This optimal bet pattern happens to be the one that maximizes the DI value, for the given spread, hence the title of the section.

Depending the particular game conditions you have specified, and on the speed of your computer, in, typically, less than 1 second, the computer will analyze and find your optimized Bet amounts (and placement), along with a value for the Bank number of "units" that maximized DI - with an  ROR of around 13.5%.

This routine has several settings that affect how it operates. One interesting optional setting is the Play “Two Hands of”. This converts the normal “one hand of” functioning of BJRM, based as it is on its canned “one hand of” simulations, into a reasonably accurate representation of what results would obtain if you always played two spots, instead of one.

When you select this option, a “window” will pop-up, allowing you to accept the default correlation coefficient of 0.37, or to change it to 0.36, 0.38, or 0.39. When using this "Play Two hands of" option, the $ and Unit Bet values on the screen represent what you should bet on EACH of the INDIVIDUAL HANDS, while all the other statistics represent the TOTAL ACTION of the two bets together.


Adjust Unit $ Size To Nearest Integer Chip Denomination

If you want to "normalize" the "Bank # of units" that are computed by the "maximize DI" routine, you can click on the Adjust Unit $ button to see the following pop-up screen.

BJRM Adjust Unit $ Size

This screen allows you to play around with combinations of Total $ Bank and Total # of Units in order to create a desired integer $ Unit size.

Along the top of the screen, you can see the current One Sec Sim Screen values for Total $ Bank, Total # of Units, and $ Unit Size.

In the Force Which to Change? section, you specify that either Total $ Bank or Total # of Units should change, so that when the former is divided by the latter, a $ Unit that is an integer will result. Further, that Integer will be set to the nearest value that represents a multiple of a specified Chip denomination ($5, $25, $100, or $500), based on the current setting of the To Nearest Chip Multiple box.

Note: If you specify that Total $ Bank should change, then the Risk-of-Ruin will remain constant. If you specify that Total # of Units should change, then the Risk-of-Ruin will also change.

The Adjusted Values section of the screen will now show you the new values for Total $ Bank, Total # of Units, and $ Unit Size. The Up 1 and the Down 1 buttons will let you make further adjustments. The "1" here refers to "one Chip Multiple," as currently selected in the To Nearest Chip Multiple box.

Once you have finished adjusting the screen values, you then have two exit options. If you click on the Use These Values & Exit button, the Adjusted Values will be copied back to the One Sec Sim, and you will be returned there. All of the One Sec Sim $-based statistics will have been automatically updated, based on your selected new values.

If you instead click on the Just Exit, No Changes button, you will be returned to the One Sec Sim, and no values will have been changed.

Use BJA Chapt 10 Bets Button

Related to the Quick Bet Options, this button, functional only for the Hi-Lo sims initially supplied with BJRM, will automatically populate a bet pattern that matches one of those used in the simulations that were behind the Chapter 10 charts in Don Schlesinger’s classic Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros’ Way. This button is provided mainly in order to retain a feature of the original version of BJRM, which allowed you to easily view and compare the individual Chapter 10 results.

Two Hand Equivalents Button

Note: This pop-up screen should not be confused with the "Play Two Hands Of" feature mentioned above.

BJRM Two Hand Equivs

The Two Hand Equivalents button causes a pop-up window to appear that gives you a "quick and dirty" idea of the $ sizes of the bets you would place, on each of two hands, if you wanted to keep your same ROR, but win a bit more money than with "one hand of" bets. If, instead of what this window shows, you simply split your one-hand bet in two, and placed each half as a separate bet for that round, your expectation would be to win the same $ amount of money, but at a reduced ROR. Note: The previously mentioned "Play Two Hands of" option, of the Find Spread Configuration that Maximizes DI routine, will give you a better idea of how you should optimally play two hands, instead of one.

Miscellaneous Screen Items:

Print Screen Image Button

Sends an image of the current contents of the screen to your printer.

ß Cpy OptB Button

Simply copies the value current displayed in the OptB (u) field, to the Bank (u) field. A re-Calc may be required. This button is provided simply as a time saver.

SCORE (per 100 and per Hour) Fields:

SCORE is an acronym, coined by Don Schlesinger, that stands for the phrase "Standardized Comparison Of Risk and Expectation." Technically, it is simply a game’s Desirability Index (DI), squared, but it has, many believe, more immediate practical value than the DI statistic. SCORE represents a given game’s normalized $ return on investment, based on the assumption of a standard $-sized Bank ($10,000 is usually used as a basis for standardized comparisons). What makes this measure appealing is twofold: First, it puts an absolute dollar value on an hour’s worth (and/or 100 hands) of your play. You can tell, immediately and exactly, what your hourly "wages" will be. Second, it relates more realistically the comparisons you may wish to establish among different games and conditions.

For example, if two DIs are given as, say, 7.07 and 5.00, you may not really grasp from these numbers, whose ratio is 1.41 (7.07 / 5.00 ), that the first game is actually worth twice as much as the second, on a risk-adjusted basis. But because the SCORE squares the DI values and converts them to a dollar amount based on your unit size, you can understand immediately that you will win precisely double by choosing the first game over the second.

SCORE is given here in BJRM as both a "per 100" and as an estimated "per Hour" value as a means of adjusting for the differences in speed of various blackjack games, with various numbers of other players at the table.

Adjst EV Field

The Adjst EV field will probably rarely be set to anything other than its 0 default value. Its purpose is to let you specify, should you desire, a fixed amount that will be added to, or subtracted from, the ev data displayed for the individual counts. You might do this to add or subtract for Rules that were not considered in the pre-run sims. Here are some guidelines, based on their effect on the BS player:

Rule

1D

2D

6D

8D

Double Down only on 11

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.6

Double Down only on 10 or 11

-0.25

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

Double Down only on 9, 10 or 11

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

No Splitting of Aces Allowed

-0.15

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

Resplit Aces

0.03

0.05

0.06

0.06

Early Surrender (S17)

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Early Surrender (H17)

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Early Surrender vs Dealer Ace (S17)

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Early Surrender vs Dealer Ace (H17)

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Early Surrender if Dealer shows a Ten

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

No Hole Card, Dealer takes only original bet

0

0

0

0

No Hole Card (European Rules) Dlr takes all

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

You also might want to perform this adjustment if you feel that, in order to simulate your real-life casino play, you do not want to use the actual computer simulated ev’s. For example, you may play many more (or many less) BS departures than were used in this screen’s base data (the I18 and F4), or perhaps you play a stronger count system. Alternatively, you may want to account for errors you likely make, or perhaps you just want to be "conservative."

Unfortunately, I cannot offer you any guidelines on what size adjustments to make. But, the feature is there, if you wish to make use of it.

Avg Bet (units and $): The average bet you will be making. Relevant for "comp" purposes, among other things.

%W/L: The hourly win rate, expressed as a percentage of the initial bets.

SD/Hnd (units and $): The Standard Deviation per hand played, shown as a number of units and as a dollar amount, based on current Unit $ size.

SD/100 (units and $): The Standard Deviation per 100 hands played, or observed, if wonging, shown as a number of units and as a dollar amount, based on current Unit $ size.

Win/100 (units and $): The number of units/$ won (or lost) per 100 hands played, or observed, if wonging, shown as a number of units and as a dollar amount, based on current Unit $ size.

DI: The Desirability Index. An adjusted ratio of the games Win Rate to the games Standard Deviation. Higher is better. General consensus is that at least a 5.0 is required to make a game reasonably "desirable."

Hnds to N0 (N-Zero): The number of hands that need to be played before expectation (ev) exceeds a one standard deviation result. A player has, roughly, an 84% chance of being ahead after playing this many hands.

ROR: The classic Risk-of-Ruin of your Bankroll. The probability that you will lose your entire Bank, assuming you never adjust your $ unit size, regardless of whether you are winning or losing.

Hnds to Dbl: The number of hands that need to be played until the accumulated Win Rate’s expectation is doubles the starting Bank.

Exp Grwth Rate: The percent rate at which your bankroll will exponentially grow.

Following is an explanation of the items in the Sim Raw Data, and Bets screen section:

# of Hnds: The number of hands you are placing bets for, per round. Usually one.

tc or irc=: The True Count (tc), for balanced systems, or the Initial Running Count (irc=), for unbalanced systems.

When this says "irc=," you can click on it with your mouse, and a window will pop-up allowing you to specify an IRC that is different from the one that was used when the base simulation was run. This lets you easily adjust the screen data to fit the IRC you use when you actually play, if it is different from the sim default.

bet u: The bet you will be making, expressed in Units.

Bet $: The bet you will be making, expressed in dollars, and based on the current Unit ($).

freq: The frequency of occurrence of the respective true or running count.

ev: Your positive or negative expectation (your or the house’s "edge") at the given true or running count.

sd: The standard deviation at the given true or running count.

o bet: The optimum bet, expressed in Units, for the given true or running count.